Sussan ley
Sussan Ley’s political trajectory has always been defined by resilience and a "sky-high" ambition. Known in her early career as the "Farrer Flier"—a nod to her commercial pilot’s license and her massive regional electorate—Ley’s rise to become the first female leader of the Liberal Party in May 2025 was seen as a historic milestone for the Coalition.
However, as of January 2026, that journey has hit a severe pocket of turbulence. Following a dramatic split between the Liberal and National parties, many are questioning if we are witnessing the final chapter of her leadership.
How Did She Get Here?
Ley’s path to the top was paved with decades of "real-world" experience. Born in Nigeria and raised in the UAE and UK, she moved to Australia at 13. Before entering Parliament in 2001, she worked as a waitress, a shearer’s cook, an air traffic controller, and an aerial stock-mustering pilot.
She climbed the ministerial ranks under Abbott, Turnbull, and Morrison, holding heavy-duty portfolios like Health and Environment. After the Coalition's 2022 election defeat, she was elected Deputy Leader under Peter Dutton. When the leadership became vacant in May 2025, she stepped up to take the reins of a party looking to modernize and reconnect with female voters.
The Role of David Littleproud
The current crisis centers on her relationship with David Littleproud, the leader of the National Party. Historically, the Liberal-National Coalition has been the bedrock of conservative politics in Australia. However, the partnership turned "untenable" in January 2026.
The split was triggered by a disagreement over hate speech legislation. When three Nationals senators crossed the floor to vote against the bill, Ley accepted their resignations from the shadow cabinet to maintain "cabinet solidarity." In response, Littleproud led a mass walkout of the entire Nationals frontbench. Littleproud has publicly stated that the Coalition cannot continue under Ley’s leadership, essentially placing the blame for the breakup squarely on her shoulders.
Is This the End of Her Leadership?
While Sussan Ley remains defiant—stating she is "absolutely confident" in her leadership and that her door remains open to the Nationals—senior Liberal colleagues have described her position as "terminal."
The friction isn't just with the Nationals; poor polling and internal Liberal party fractures have weakened her standing. A leadership challenge is widely anticipated, with many believing she may be forced to step aside to allow the party to reunite before the next election.
Who Will Replace Her?
If a spill occurs, two names have surged to the front of the pack:
Angus Taylor: The Shadow Treasurer and a key figure in the party's right faction.
Andrew Hastie: The former SAS captain and Shadow Minister for Defence, who is reportedly being encouraged by colleagues to run.
Other "outsider" possibilities include Ted O'Brien (the current Deputy Leader) and Tim Wilson, though Taylor and Hastie are considered the primary contenders.
Could One Nation Become the Next Opposition?
The chaos within the Coalition has fueled speculation about a shift in the Australian political landscape. Polling in late 2025 suggested that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was surging, potentially matching or exceeding the Coalition's primary vote in some areas.
While One Nation is currently considered the "fourth force" in Australian politics, some analysts suggest a global trend of far-right parties overtaking traditional centre-right parties could manifest here. However, under Australia's House of Representatives system, becoming the "Official Opposition" requires holding the most non-government seats. While One Nation's influence is growing—particularly in the Senate—they would need a massive surge in lower house seats to officially replace the Liberal Party as the alternative government.
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