one nation party

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In January 2026, the Australian political landscape shifted in a way many pundits once thought impossible. For the first time in history, Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) surpassed the Liberal-National Coalition in primary vote support, signaling a seismic fracture in the traditional "two-party" system.  
The Numbers: A Historic Overtaking
The tipping point arrived in mid-to-late January 2026. A series of polls—most notably Newspoll, Roy Morgan, and Guardian Essential—showed One Nation’s primary support surging to a record 22%, while the Liberal-National Coalition’s primary vote plummeted to a historic low of 20–21%.  
While One Nation has historically been a "protest vote" party, the 2026 surge saw Senator Pauline Hanson herself rising in "Preferred Prime Minister" metrics, occasionally rivaling or even exceeding the ratings of the Opposition Leader.
Why Did This Happen?
The "Perfect Storm" of 2025–2026 was fueled by a combination of leadership instability, social tension, and specific policy triggers.
1. The Coalition Split
In early 2026, the Liberal-National Coalition—a partnership that had lasted for nearly 40 years—dissolved. Disagreements over free speech, hate speech legislation, and gun laws (following a high-profile attack in Bondi) led the National Party to break away from the Liberals. This "Coalition Chaos" left traditional conservative voters feeling adrift, making One Nation’s consistent, hardline messaging more attractive.  
2. High-Profile Defections
The movement was supercharged by the defection of senior conservative figures, most notably Barnaby Joyce, to One Nation. Joyce’s move acted as a bridge for regional voters who felt the National Party had become too "city-centric" or moderate.  
3. The Cost of Living and Migration
As wages struggled to keep pace with inflation, One Nation capitalized on growing voter frustration regarding:
Housing Affordability: Linking the housing crisis directly to migration levels.
Energy Costs: A vocal rejection of climate science and the Paris Agreement, which resonated with regional industrial and agricultural workers.  
4. Polarization on Social Issues
Heated debates over proposed "hate speech" laws and gun control measures created a vacuum. While the Liberal Party under Sussan Ley attempted to balance moderate urban voters with rural conservatives, Pauline Hanson took an uncompromising stance that appealed to those who felt their "freedom of speech" was under threat.  
The Fall of the Liberal Party vs. One Nation
The Liberal Party’s decline is largely a "war on two fronts." While the Teal Independents have eroded their support in wealthy, urban "doctor's wives" seats, One Nation has now effectively gutted their support in the regions and working-class outer suburbs.

Metric Liberal Party (Jan 2026) One Nation (Jan 2026)
Primary Vote ~20% (Record Low) ~22.5% (Record High)
Key Strongholds Suburban pockets Regional NSW & QLD
Core Issues Economic management

This is the first poll in Australia's history that another party is polling higher than one of the major parties. I'm not just here to prop up the Coalition or Labor."
— Senator Pauline Hanson, January 2026
What This Means for the Future
This shift suggests that Australia is moving toward a "multi-polar" parliament. If these polling numbers were reflected in a general election, One Nation would not just hold the balance of power in the Senate; they would likely win several Lower House seats, potentially leading to a minority government where Pauline Hanson is a "kingmaker."
The Liberal Party now faces an existential choice: move further right to reclaim One Nation voters (risking further losses to the Teals) or stay the course and risk becoming a permanent third-place party.

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